OWNER ALERT...
ATTENTION SELLERS:
http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n2-073007.cfm
Study: Foreclosures impact entire neighborhoods
MIAMI– July 30, 2007 –
Mounting mortgage defaults across South Florida threaten to hurt more than just those homeowners who lose their properties to lenders.
Experts say foreclosures could drag down already sluggish housing prices throughout entire neighborhoods.
“Homeowners that are being foreclosed upon aren’t spending their Saturday afternoons mowing the yard,” said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com in North Palm Beach. “So those people who are cutting the grass, trimming the shrubs and fixing the gutters will suffer.”
In the Tree Tops development in Wellington, where residents tend to their lots with care, one property near the entrance is in foreclosure and has been on the market for months. The vacant house has a rickety wooden fence, missing roof tiles and, until recently, a front yard full of weeds. A buyer just walked away from a $190,000 contract on the home, located about three miles west of the Mall at Wellington Green where comparable homes go for as much has $240,000.
As a result, neighbors trying to sell their wood-frame homes built in the early 1980s could have a hard time getting their asking prices, said Deanne Lee, 43, a real estate agent who lives one street from the house in foreclosure.“It’s a scary thought,” Lee said. “I see this as just the beginning.”
In a national study published last year, two housing analysts found that for every foreclosure within one-eighth of a mile of a single-family home, property values decline by about 1 percent, and even more in dense developments. The study by Geoff Smith and Dan Immergluck is thought to be the only comprehensive look at the effect of foreclosures on property values, and is based on depressed values in Chicago in 1997 and 1998. Based on their study, the value of a typical Palm Beach County home near one property in foreclosure could drop at least $3,779.
The county’s median-priced existing home in June was $377,900, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.
“One foreclosure may have a modest effect on nearby property values, but with four or five foreclosures, you’ll see a significant effect,” said Smith, director of the Woodstock Institute, a nonprofit housing group in Chicago. “You see neighborhoods start to decline.”
Smith recommends that neighbors of foreclosed homes postpone selling their own properties until the housing market improves. “But people often times don’t have that option,” he said.
The numbers of homeowners defaulting on their mortgages and facing foreclosure are rising steadily across South Florida this year, according to Realestat.com, a Plantation-based company that compiles local housing statistics.
Analysts mostly blame the trouble on unconventional home loans made to risky borrowers hoping to get into houses and condominiums that shot up in value during the housing boom from 2000 to 2005.
Perfect foreclosure storm
The number of Palm Beach County homeowners behind on their mortgage payments topped 1,000 in June, almost a fourfold increase from 259 a year ago. Actual foreclosures were flat last month. The worst is yet to come, however. Experts say foreclosure filings and late-payment notices from lenders are expected to peak this fall, leaving lenders with a glut of properties to sell by next summer.
In Floral Park, a middle-class development of 40-year-old homes in suburban Lake Worth, a foreclosed house went on the market down the street from Joe Rodriguez. It sold recently for just more than $263,000. As a result, Rodriguez is worried that he could have a hard time getting his $369,900 asking price, even though his four-bedroom corner property is bigger and includes a pool table as an incentive.“
It’s a bad sign,” Rodriguez said of foreclosures. “If the banks turn around and sell them for less, sure, it’s going to hurt [other sellers nearby.]”
Homeowners with late house payments usually are at least three months behind and have been notified that their lenders intend to foreclose. In many cases, people who secured adjustable-rate loans found they couldn’t afford the monthly payments once interest rates rose.During the housing frenzy, some of those people avoided foreclosure simply by selling the homes or refinancing. But that wasn’t as easy to do when the market slumped last year. With fewer buyers and thousands of properties for sale, cash-strapped homeowners can’t count on fast deals to bail them out of trouble.
What’s more, refinancing isn’t as easy now because home values are flat or dropping and lenders are tightening credit standards as borrowers default on home loans.
Neighborhoods that stand to get hurt the most from the foreclosure crunch are newer ones with a large number of sales made near the peak of the housing boom in 2005, said Alan Hunter, a senior market analyst with Metrostudy, a West Palm Beach consulting firm.Because lenders don’t want to be in the real estate business, they’ll likely sell those properties quickly and at a loss that will reduce home values.
“They’ll be bought by investors who will try to rent them out at a profit,” Hunter said. It’s becoming more difficult to determine whether price declines are the result of nearby foreclosures or the general decline in the housing market, real estate agents say. Regardless, the downward pressure on prices actually will be good in the long run for overpriced markets, including South Florida, said Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wachovia Securities.“It’s going to help speed up the adjustment process,” Vitner said. “More homes will get into the hands of more willing sellers – the banks or whomever. It’s a necessary thing.”
But that’s not what sellers want to hear. Re/Max agent Mark Plaxen is marketing a two-bedroom townhouse off Village Boulevard in West Palm Beach. Four months ago, the seller was asking $199,000 but has since reduced the price five times. This month it was listed at $174,900.Plaxen just found out about another listing in the same development: a townhouse in foreclosure.
“I’ll probably have to call up my seller and say, ‘It’s time to lower the price again.’”
Copyright © 2007 South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Paul Owers. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
Monday, July 30, 2007
Monday, July 23, 2007
New Maintenance Supervisor
The dog days of summer are here again...hope you are staying cool.
A couple of weeks ago, our maintenance Director, Mike Sunderman, resigned with no notice, leaving the Village with no day-to-day person responsible for the upkeep of our assets. In the interim, members of the Board have been pitching in and helping with the regular duties: trash, the pool area, unlocking the pool, etc.
It is my pleasure to announce our NEW Supervisor of Building and Grounds - Jim Brasby. After a lengthy interview process with many candidates, we were excited to offer the position to Jim! Jim lives in New Port Richey with his wife and 2 children (ages 3 & 15). Jim has extensive experience in the home-building industry, including supervisory positions and hands-on experience "in the trenches". The knowledge gained in past occupations will certainly bennefit him (and Westlake) as he moves to tackle jobs that, for some reason or another, just couldn't get done previously.
Jim will be working Monday through Friday from 7a - 3p. If you see him, be sure to introduce yourself and make him feel welcome - he is, after all, part of our extended Westlake Village family. Jim also offered to pen a monthly column in the Village Voice to keep you, the residents, abreast of the latest projects and priorities.
As soon as he gets acquainted with our facilities and equipment, Jim will be fully responsible for all of the common assets of our neighborhood. If you know of an issue that requires attention, please submit a Work Order form to Rosemary in the Office - the blank form are available on our website, www.WestlakeVillageHOA.com, or in the office.
The 2nd half of 2007 should be an exciting time...stay tuned!
Oh, we are still looking for volunteers to join the Board of Directors. We don't bite and have no known communicable diseases - so don't put it off any longer! Make a choice to get involved and keep YOUR BIGGEST INVESTMENT - your home - protected by a well-run and well-maintained community!
Peace.
Rich C.
A couple of weeks ago, our maintenance Director, Mike Sunderman, resigned with no notice, leaving the Village with no day-to-day person responsible for the upkeep of our assets. In the interim, members of the Board have been pitching in and helping with the regular duties: trash, the pool area, unlocking the pool, etc.
It is my pleasure to announce our NEW Supervisor of Building and Grounds - Jim Brasby. After a lengthy interview process with many candidates, we were excited to offer the position to Jim! Jim lives in New Port Richey with his wife and 2 children (ages 3 & 15). Jim has extensive experience in the home-building industry, including supervisory positions and hands-on experience "in the trenches". The knowledge gained in past occupations will certainly bennefit him (and Westlake) as he moves to tackle jobs that, for some reason or another, just couldn't get done previously.
Jim will be working Monday through Friday from 7a - 3p. If you see him, be sure to introduce yourself and make him feel welcome - he is, after all, part of our extended Westlake Village family. Jim also offered to pen a monthly column in the Village Voice to keep you, the residents, abreast of the latest projects and priorities.
As soon as he gets acquainted with our facilities and equipment, Jim will be fully responsible for all of the common assets of our neighborhood. If you know of an issue that requires attention, please submit a Work Order form to Rosemary in the Office - the blank form are available on our website, www.WestlakeVillageHOA.com, or in the office.
The 2nd half of 2007 should be an exciting time...stay tuned!
Oh, we are still looking for volunteers to join the Board of Directors. We don't bite and have no known communicable diseases - so don't put it off any longer! Make a choice to get involved and keep YOUR BIGGEST INVESTMENT - your home - protected by a well-run and well-maintained community!
Peace.
Rich C.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
7/15 update
Were you ever just happy that a week ended? I just had one of those weeks and I couldn't get through it fast enough! Here's the latest:
Last Friday, Mike Sunderman, the Director of Building and Grounds for your community, abruptly resigned. The Board of Directors accepted his resignation and immediately began interviewing for his position. Being in charge of the Westlake Village common areas and the grounds encompassing all of Westlake Village is no easy task, I assure you. We have a backlog of projects the Board would like to see to completion. At our July Board meeting, it is my intention to put forth a candidate who will have the initiative, motivation, and knowledge to be successful in the vacated postion....stand by for more on this subject.
Wednesday morning, the Village awoke to vandalism of our pool area. Hoodlums cut out a section of our pool fence, which is mandated by the County to keep young children from wandering into the pool and drowning. We are working on getting this repaired just as soon as we are able. Also, these same thugs cut and removed all the wire strand running along the top of the pool fence...apparently there is a large black market for recycled Galvalum (or galvanized aluminum). A few tables and chairs were thrown into the pool as well as damage down to the playground area.
The Board of Directors has refit all locks and we are taking other measures to secure the common areas from further damage.
FYI, there are some rather major changes to the State Statutes with regard to Architectural/Deed restriction compliance that are coming down the pike. Stay tuned for more on that, as it WILL affect home values for those unlucky enough to live next to someone who bought in our community with no regard for the rules that have existed since the inception of our community.
Later...
Last Friday, Mike Sunderman, the Director of Building and Grounds for your community, abruptly resigned. The Board of Directors accepted his resignation and immediately began interviewing for his position. Being in charge of the Westlake Village common areas and the grounds encompassing all of Westlake Village is no easy task, I assure you. We have a backlog of projects the Board would like to see to completion. At our July Board meeting, it is my intention to put forth a candidate who will have the initiative, motivation, and knowledge to be successful in the vacated postion....stand by for more on this subject.
Wednesday morning, the Village awoke to vandalism of our pool area. Hoodlums cut out a section of our pool fence, which is mandated by the County to keep young children from wandering into the pool and drowning. We are working on getting this repaired just as soon as we are able. Also, these same thugs cut and removed all the wire strand running along the top of the pool fence...apparently there is a large black market for recycled Galvalum (or galvanized aluminum). A few tables and chairs were thrown into the pool as well as damage down to the playground area.
The Board of Directors has refit all locks and we are taking other measures to secure the common areas from further damage.
FYI, there are some rather major changes to the State Statutes with regard to Architectural/Deed restriction compliance that are coming down the pike. Stay tuned for more on that, as it WILL affect home values for those unlucky enough to live next to someone who bought in our community with no regard for the rules that have existed since the inception of our community.
Later...
Monday, July 9, 2007
Every week I update this blog with good info, tips, and please for volunteers. I would like to take this opportunity to offer you a referral that may save you a ton of money and sweat. But first...
***Westlake Village Civic Association does not endorse nor recommend any vendors to our residents and receives no compensation of any sort****
Last week, our A/C condenser outside started making noises reminicent of Linda Blair in "The Exorcist". It was so bad it would wake us up in the middle of the night as it kicked on and off. Bam, Bam, Bam, Bam, woo, woo, woo...at 13 years of age, I thought for sure we would need a new condenser unit.
We normally use a large local company, but my wife had a colleague who HIGHLY recommended another A/C guy. As a realtor, I have come to realize the intrinsic value of maintaining a referral list and working EXCLUSIVELY with vendors who have a proven track record.
I called Greg barnes of Dixie's Heating and Cooling, Inc. He came out in a prompt manner and proceeded to get to work. The first thing he noticed was the contactor had partially burned away after 13 years of Florida summers. It couldn't make full contact each and every time, hence the bangs we were hearing.
Part of his check included testing the freon level. he likened it to oil in a car - it should never be too low and NEVER be too high - ours had an overpressure situation, which Greg professionally adjusted.
His rates are very very competitive and he's always professional. I just had him work on my mother-in-law's compressor and I couldn't be more satisfied.
His number is 727.488.4478 - give him a call if you start sweating profusely - with the a/c at full blast!
***Westlake Village Civic Association does not endorse nor recommend any vendors to our residents and receives no compensation of any sort****
Last week, our A/C condenser outside started making noises reminicent of Linda Blair in "The Exorcist". It was so bad it would wake us up in the middle of the night as it kicked on and off. Bam, Bam, Bam, Bam, woo, woo, woo...at 13 years of age, I thought for sure we would need a new condenser unit.
We normally use a large local company, but my wife had a colleague who HIGHLY recommended another A/C guy. As a realtor, I have come to realize the intrinsic value of maintaining a referral list and working EXCLUSIVELY with vendors who have a proven track record.
I called Greg barnes of Dixie's Heating and Cooling, Inc. He came out in a prompt manner and proceeded to get to work. The first thing he noticed was the contactor had partially burned away after 13 years of Florida summers. It couldn't make full contact each and every time, hence the bangs we were hearing.
Part of his check included testing the freon level. he likened it to oil in a car - it should never be too low and NEVER be too high - ours had an overpressure situation, which Greg professionally adjusted.
His rates are very very competitive and he's always professional. I just had him work on my mother-in-law's compressor and I couldn't be more satisfied.
His number is 727.488.4478 - give him a call if you start sweating profusely - with the a/c at full blast!
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Homeowners rejoice...
Real-estate related, but good information nonetheless:
http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_Forbes.aspx?cp-documentid=5008065>1=10130
Where will real estate bounce back fastest?
Prices have hit bottom in some cities and are heading back up, but recovery rates vary. Here are the places with the best prospects.
By Matt Woolsey, Forbes.com
When it comes to real estate, the questions on everyone's lips are: How low is low, and when's the perfect time to buy back in?
That moment has passed in Seattle and in Charlotte, N.C. Both metro areas hit bottom in the first quarter of 2006 and have since posted price gains of 12.3% and 6.3%, respectively, according to National Association of Realtors (NAR) data.
Ripe for investment? Philadelphia and New Orleans. Based on housing inventory and local economic conditions, both should hit price troughs by year's end and bounce back with moderate gains of around 4% in 2008.
In markets expected to recover more slowly, such as Boston and Denver, low buyer confidence coupled with a surplus of housing stock has lengthened the slump. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun points out that buyers are looking for clear signs of a market bottom and are content to wait on the sidelines until then.
It's easy to see why. Most of the country's real-estate markets are feeling the effects of overproduction. A strong market hovers near a 1.5% vacancy rate, but the national average currently stands at 2.8%, and in cities such as Miami, Atlanta and Denver, figures hang around 3.5%. In addition, every nugget of good news (like the May Commerce Department report that said new-home sales are at a 14-year high) comes with bad news (median price growth is at a 10-year low).
So which other metro area markets stand the best chance of recovery, and when will that upturn occur?
Behind the numbers
Market corrections follow three basic recovery patterns: a V-shaped recovery where a market experiences a sharp, fast decline but comes out strong once it hits bottom; a U-shaped recovery, where prices decline gradually and recover slowly; and an L-shaped pattern, a hard, fast fall with a paltry price bounce-back after the market trough.
The differences between a V-shaped market and a U-shaped one have to do with barriers to growth. High vacancy rates and high investor share can hurt a market, but if the local economy remains strong and housing stock affordable, it's only a matter of how long it takes to absorb the excess inventory.
Tampa, Fla., is a perfect candidate for a V-shaped recovery, according to research from Moody's Economy.com, an economic analysis, forecasting and credit risk firm in West Chester, Pa. The local economy remains strong, and subprime lending is relatively low.
Tampa's problem? A high investor share that led to high vacancy rates. When the market turned sour in 2005, more than 25% of Tampa homes were owned as investment properties. Investors are quicker to flee during a downturn, thus creating a glut of available housing stock. In Tampa's case, vacancy rates now stand at 3.5%.
"As investors exit, the market revives," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, as fewer speculative buyers result in a more stable market. "Tampa's a pretty affordable market, and first-time buyers can come in once prices fall."
Based on Moody's Economy projections, Tampa should burn off its excess inventory and hit a price trough in the first quarter of 2008, at which point prices are expected to increase by 10.6% the following year.
These projections take into account housing affordability, vacancy rates, the strength of the local economy and job market, investor share in 2005 and the share of subprime mortgages. Data are from Moody's, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve.
Predicting the bottom of any asset market, especially real estate, is a difficult thing. While these projections are based on sound data and advanced modeling by Moody's, no one can predict futures markets with absolute certainty.
Other bounces
Like Tampa, Phoenix is afflicted by high investor share (26.1%), and it has a vacancy rate of more than 3%. Good affordability rates and a surging job market suggest that once Phoenix bottoms out, price growth will be strong. Moody's projection model has Phoenix reaching its price trough in the fourth quarter of 2008 and then growing by 7.7% the following year.
Slower recovery rates are expected in markets such as Minneapolis and Boston, where a slumping local economy, slow job growth and negative migration numbers hamper long-term prospects. Along with other U-shaped markets, like Sacramento, that have double-digit subprime lending share, Zandi says it's going to be harder for these markets to get going again.
That doesn't necessarily mean V-shaped markets are in the clear. The labor markets in cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego, whose future economic success will be critical to recovery, are heavily in housing-related industries, according to Moody's. So long as those economies can weather their respective corrections, they should be all right.
"These markets are going to experience more substantial declines in the coming year," says Zandi. "Gauging the bottom is a very intrepid affair, and the job market is very important to recovery."
Real-estate markets with the best prospects for recovery
Rank
Market
Expected market bottom
Est. price appreciation after bottom
1
Tampa, Fla.
Q1 2008
10.60%
2
Phoenix
Q4 2008
7.70%
3
Las Vegas
Q2 2009
7.20%
4
San Diego
Q2 2008
5.30%
5
New Orleans
Q3 2007
4.30%
http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article_Forbes.aspx?cp-documentid=5008065>1=10130
Where will real estate bounce back fastest?
Prices have hit bottom in some cities and are heading back up, but recovery rates vary. Here are the places with the best prospects.
By Matt Woolsey, Forbes.com
When it comes to real estate, the questions on everyone's lips are: How low is low, and when's the perfect time to buy back in?
That moment has passed in Seattle and in Charlotte, N.C. Both metro areas hit bottom in the first quarter of 2006 and have since posted price gains of 12.3% and 6.3%, respectively, according to National Association of Realtors (NAR) data.
Ripe for investment? Philadelphia and New Orleans. Based on housing inventory and local economic conditions, both should hit price troughs by year's end and bounce back with moderate gains of around 4% in 2008.
In markets expected to recover more slowly, such as Boston and Denver, low buyer confidence coupled with a surplus of housing stock has lengthened the slump. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun points out that buyers are looking for clear signs of a market bottom and are content to wait on the sidelines until then.
It's easy to see why. Most of the country's real-estate markets are feeling the effects of overproduction. A strong market hovers near a 1.5% vacancy rate, but the national average currently stands at 2.8%, and in cities such as Miami, Atlanta and Denver, figures hang around 3.5%. In addition, every nugget of good news (like the May Commerce Department report that said new-home sales are at a 14-year high) comes with bad news (median price growth is at a 10-year low).
So which other metro area markets stand the best chance of recovery, and when will that upturn occur?
Behind the numbers
Market corrections follow three basic recovery patterns: a V-shaped recovery where a market experiences a sharp, fast decline but comes out strong once it hits bottom; a U-shaped recovery, where prices decline gradually and recover slowly; and an L-shaped pattern, a hard, fast fall with a paltry price bounce-back after the market trough.
The differences between a V-shaped market and a U-shaped one have to do with barriers to growth. High vacancy rates and high investor share can hurt a market, but if the local economy remains strong and housing stock affordable, it's only a matter of how long it takes to absorb the excess inventory.
Tampa, Fla., is a perfect candidate for a V-shaped recovery, according to research from Moody's Economy.com, an economic analysis, forecasting and credit risk firm in West Chester, Pa. The local economy remains strong, and subprime lending is relatively low.
Tampa's problem? A high investor share that led to high vacancy rates. When the market turned sour in 2005, more than 25% of Tampa homes were owned as investment properties. Investors are quicker to flee during a downturn, thus creating a glut of available housing stock. In Tampa's case, vacancy rates now stand at 3.5%.
"As investors exit, the market revives," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, as fewer speculative buyers result in a more stable market. "Tampa's a pretty affordable market, and first-time buyers can come in once prices fall."
Based on Moody's Economy projections, Tampa should burn off its excess inventory and hit a price trough in the first quarter of 2008, at which point prices are expected to increase by 10.6% the following year.
These projections take into account housing affordability, vacancy rates, the strength of the local economy and job market, investor share in 2005 and the share of subprime mortgages. Data are from Moody's, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve.
Predicting the bottom of any asset market, especially real estate, is a difficult thing. While these projections are based on sound data and advanced modeling by Moody's, no one can predict futures markets with absolute certainty.
Other bounces
Like Tampa, Phoenix is afflicted by high investor share (26.1%), and it has a vacancy rate of more than 3%. Good affordability rates and a surging job market suggest that once Phoenix bottoms out, price growth will be strong. Moody's projection model has Phoenix reaching its price trough in the fourth quarter of 2008 and then growing by 7.7% the following year.
Slower recovery rates are expected in markets such as Minneapolis and Boston, where a slumping local economy, slow job growth and negative migration numbers hamper long-term prospects. Along with other U-shaped markets, like Sacramento, that have double-digit subprime lending share, Zandi says it's going to be harder for these markets to get going again.
That doesn't necessarily mean V-shaped markets are in the clear. The labor markets in cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego, whose future economic success will be critical to recovery, are heavily in housing-related industries, according to Moody's. So long as those economies can weather their respective corrections, they should be all right.
"These markets are going to experience more substantial declines in the coming year," says Zandi. "Gauging the bottom is a very intrepid affair, and the job market is very important to recovery."
Real-estate markets with the best prospects for recovery
Rank
Market
Expected market bottom
Est. price appreciation after bottom
1
Tampa, Fla.
Q1 2008
10.60%
2
Phoenix
Q4 2008
7.70%
3
Las Vegas
Q2 2009
7.20%
4
San Diego
Q2 2008
5.30%
5
New Orleans
Q3 2007
4.30%
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